The majority of the world’s countries aren’t on track to meet the United Nations' target of reducing premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030, researchers report in the current edition of the Lancet.
Senior author Majid Ezzati et al. estimated more than half of all countries would fail to meet sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4—an effort to minimize the number of early deaths from cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes. The analysis is part of the “NCD Countdown 2030” and was published a week ahead of the third UN High-Level Meeting on Noncommunicable Diseases, which kicks off Sept. 27.
As part of the NCD Countdown, which is co-led by the Lancet, World Health Organization, Imperial College London and the NCD Alliance, Ezzati and his colleagues compared the change in death rates for 186 countries between 2010 and 2016 to understand the likelihood of those countries meeting the UN’s 2030 goal.
“Despite clear commitments, international aid agencies and national governments are doing too little to reduce deaths from cancers, heart and lung disease and diabetes,” Ezzati said in a press release. “Progress is even slower for other diseases that are not a part of the SDG target, meaning that the true health of people in most countries is even more dire.”
Considering patients between the ages of 30 and 70, the researchers said the likelihood of dying from one of the four major NCDs in 2016 was lowest for women in South Korea—less than 5 percent—and highest for those in Sierra Leone, who saw a seven-fold increased risk compared to Korean women. For men, likelihood of dying from a major NCD was lowest in Iceland and highest in Mongolia.
By 2016, the risk of dying from a major NCD before a man or woman’s 70th birthday reached 18 percent and 12 percent in the U.S., respectively.
Ezzati and his team said America is experiencing a stagnation problem—one that isn’t evident in other developed countries. They said the U.S. is one of 15 countries where NCD deaths have remained stagnant, or even increased, among women.
The authors wrote the U.S.’s problems likely stem from a failure to reduce premature deaths from NCDs other than cancer, since cancer rates in the country have been steadily declining for years. On the other hand, deaths from cardiovascular disease, diabetes and respiratory complications have followed a slow upward trajectory.
In the U.S. and abroad, educating the public and improving early detection of risk factors like high blood pressure, obesity, alcohol use and smoking might help slow rates of NCDs.
The authors said their study found 35 countries for women and 30 countries for men will probably achieve SDG target 3.4, but that’s in contrast to 86 and 97 countries, respectively, that won’t meet the goal.
“Going forward, the NCD Countdown 2030 is a shot in the arm for the global response to the NCD epidemic, which has long needed a stronger accountability process,” Katie Dain, CEO of the NCD Alliance in the U.K., said in the release. “The aspirations and promises of commitments from political leaders made at the [UN] meeting are now on notice. Even those governments who appear to be on track cannot be complacent—they must remain vigilant and respond with effective policies to emerging threats to health of the next generation, including child obesity, air pollution and the ever-evolving tactics of the tobacco and alcohol industries.”
After graduating from Indiana University-Bloomington with a bachelor’s in journalism, Anicka joined TriMed’s Chicago team in 2017 covering cardiology. Close to her heart is long-form journalism, Pilot G-2 pens, dark chocolate and her dog Harper Lee.