By 2014, the pharmaceutical market is expected to reach $1.1 trillion, increasing by $300 billion over the next five years. And, according to a report published April 20 by IMS Health, the U.S. pharma market is expected to peak in 2011 and 2012 when almost two-thirds of the total value of patents are set to expire, including Bristol Myers Squibb's blockbuster Plavix (clopidogrel).
The pharmaceutical market grew by 7 percent—reaching $837 billion—compared to the 4.8 percent climb in 2008, according to IMS. In 2010, it is expected that global pharmaceutical sales will grow an additional 4 to 6 percent.
“Patient demand for pharmaceuticals will remain robust, despite the ongoing effects of the economic downturn being felt in many parts of the world,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president of healthcare insight at IMS.
IMS reported that the 5 to 8 percent annual estimated growth rates are due to strong growth from pharmerging countries, whose markets are expected to grow by 14 to 17 percent through 2014. Developing markets will continue to grow 3 to 6 percent.
According to IMS, the growth from these countries emerging will reach almost $120 billion to $140 billion in 2014. During the last five years, growth for these markets have climbed--$126 billion in the developed market.
The company said that the U.S. market will continue to remain the largest market, reaching an expected $360 billion to $390 billion in 2013--a growth of 3 to 6 percent.
Additionally, the report stated that the market will face competition from the development of more generic brand drug options for the top 10 largest drugs with the largest markets. Products with sales overarching $142 billion will face major competition.
“Net growth over the next five years is expected to be strong—even as the industry faces the peak years of patent expiries for innovative drugs introduced 10 to 15 years ago and subsequent entry of lower-cost generic alternatives,” said Aitken.